Analysis . Asking price against the auction trend
A dealer's asking price is an opinion. An auction result is a fact. When settled prices move and asking prices do not follow, the gap between them is the most useful thing we hold. These are the 48 references where we have enough of both to say so.
How to read this. Two independent measurements sit on every row.
The gap is what dealers ask against what the reference actually
fetched at auction. The trend is how those settled prices moved
over the last two years against the two before it. Neither means much
alone: a discount can mean the watch is out of favour, and a rise can
already be priced in. Read together they show whether retail has kept up.
What it is not. This looks backwards, not forwards. A rising trend
is a record of what happened, never a forecast. Auction and retail are
also different markets, retail carries warranty, service and recourse a
hammer price does not, so some premium is normal. Treat every row as a
question worth asking, not an answer.
Rolex
Ref. 18238
Asks trail a rising market
Settled prices have risen while dealers are still asking less than the reference fetches. Retail has not caught up yet, which is the case worth a closer look.
Rolex
Ref. 16013
Asks trail a rising market
Settled prices have risen while dealers are still asking less than the reference fetches. Retail has not caught up yet, which is the case worth a closer look.
Rolex
Ref. 16528
Asks trail a rising market
Settled prices have risen while dealers are still asking less than the reference fetches. Retail has not caught up yet, which is the case worth a closer look.
Rolex
Ref. 1803
Asks trail a rising market
Settled prices have risen while dealers are still asking less than the reference fetches. Retail has not caught up yet, which is the case worth a closer look.
Rolex
Ref. 1655
Rising, priced in line
Settled prices are up and asking prices broadly agree with them. The move is real but the market has already noticed.
Rolex
Ref. 16570
Rising, priced in line
Settled prices are up and asking prices broadly agree with them. The move is real but the market has already noticed.
Patek Philippe
Ref. 3700
Rising, priced in line
Settled prices are up and asking prices broadly agree with them. The move is real but the market has already noticed.
Rolex
Ref. 118238
Rising, priced in line
Settled prices are up and asking prices broadly agree with them. The move is real but the market has already noticed.
Rolex
Ref. 69178
Asks trail a rising market
Settled prices have risen while dealers are still asking less than the reference fetches. Retail has not caught up yet, which is the case worth a closer look.
Rolex
Ref. 116506
Rising, priced in line
Settled prices are up and asking prices broadly agree with them. The move is real but the market has already noticed.
Rolex
Ref. 16520
Rising, priced in line
Settled prices are up and asking prices broadly agree with them. The move is real but the market has already noticed.
Rolex
Ref. 116400GV
Rising, priced in line
Settled prices are up and asking prices broadly agree with them. The move is real but the market has already noticed.
Rolex
Ref. 16030
Asks trail a rising market
Settled prices have risen while dealers are still asking less than the reference fetches. Retail has not caught up yet, which is the case worth a closer look.
Rolex
Ref. 1675
Dear, but the market is rising
Sellers ask well above hammer prices, though settled prices are climbing. The premium has some support, but you are paying for the move rather than ahead of it.
Rolex
Ref. 16618
Dear, but the market is rising
Sellers ask well above hammer prices, though settled prices are climbing. The premium has some support, but you are paying for the move rather than ahead of it.
Patek Philippe
Ref. 5524G001
Both markets agree
Asking prices, settled prices and the two year trend all point the same way. Nothing here is dislocated.
Rolex
Ref. 1603
Both markets agree
Asking prices, settled prices and the two year trend all point the same way. Nothing here is dislocated.
Patek Philippe
Ref. 5980/1A001
Asks below a flat market
Dealers ask less than the hammer supports, on a market that has not moved much. Check the sold examples match the specification.
Rolex
Ref. 5513
Asks above a flat market
A retail premium over hammer prices on a market going sideways. Some premium is normal for warranty and recourse.
Rolex
Ref. 116500LN
Both markets agree
Asking prices, settled prices and the two year trend all point the same way. Nothing here is dislocated.
Rolex
Ref. 16233
Asks above a flat market
A retail premium over hammer prices on a market going sideways. Some premium is normal for warranty and recourse.
Rolex
Ref. 1680
Both markets agree
Asking prices, settled prices and the two year trend all point the same way. Nothing here is dislocated.
Rolex
Ref. 116509
Both markets agree
Asking prices, settled prices and the two year trend all point the same way. Nothing here is dislocated.
Rolex
Ref. 116519
Asks below a flat market
Dealers ask less than the hammer supports, on a market that has not moved much. Check the sold examples match the specification.
Rolex
Ref. 116505
Cheap, but the market is falling
Asks sit below settled prices, though those settled prices are dropping. The discount may simply be tracking a market on the way down.
Rolex
Ref. 116610LV
Falling, priced in line
Settled prices are down and asking prices reflect that. No dislocation between the two markets here.
Rolex
Ref. 69173
Asks run ahead of a falling market
Sellers want a premium over hammer prices while those hammer prices are going the other way. The asking price is leaning on a trend that has already turned.
Rolex
Ref. 1016
Asks run ahead of a falling market
Sellers want a premium over hammer prices while those hammer prices are going the other way. The asking price is leaning on a trend that has already turned.
Rolex
Ref. 17000
Falling, priced in line
Settled prices are down and asking prices reflect that. No dislocation between the two markets here.
Patek Philippe
Ref. 5740/1G001
Cheap, but the market is falling
Asks sit below settled prices, though those settled prices are dropping. The discount may simply be tracking a market on the way down.
Cartier
Ref. WSSA0046
Falling, priced in line
Settled prices are down and asking prices reflect that. No dislocation between the two markets here.
Rolex
Ref. 14060M
Cheap, but the market is falling
Asks sit below settled prices, though those settled prices are dropping. The discount may simply be tracking a market on the way down.
Rolex
Ref. 116520
Cheap, but the market is falling
Asks sit below settled prices, though those settled prices are dropping. The discount may simply be tracking a market on the way down.
Rolex
Ref. 16710
Falling, priced in line
Settled prices are down and asking prices reflect that. No dislocation between the two markets here.
Audemars Piguet
Ref. 5402ST
Falling, priced in line
Settled prices are down and asking prices reflect that. No dislocation between the two markets here.
Rolex
Ref. 1665
Cheap, but the market is falling
Asks sit below settled prices, though those settled prices are dropping. The discount may simply be tracking a market on the way down.
Rolex
Ref. 16610LV
Cheap, but the market is falling
Asks sit below settled prices, though those settled prices are dropping. The discount may simply be tracking a market on the way down.
Rolex
Ref. 1019
Falling, priced in line
Settled prices are down and asking prices reflect that. No dislocation between the two markets here.
Rolex
Ref. 16220
Asks run ahead of a falling market
Sellers want a premium over hammer prices while those hammer prices are going the other way. The asking price is leaning on a trend that has already turned.
Patek Philippe
Ref. 5711/1A010
Cheap, but the market is falling
Asks sit below settled prices, though those settled prices are dropping. The discount may simply be tracking a market on the way down.
Rolex
Ref. 18038
Cheap, but the market is falling
Asks sit below settled prices, though those settled prices are dropping. The discount may simply be tracking a market on the way down.
Rolex
Ref. 16750
Falling, priced in line
Settled prices are down and asking prices reflect that. No dislocation between the two markets here.
Rolex
Ref. 16660
Falling, priced in line
Settled prices are down and asking prices reflect that. No dislocation between the two markets here.
Patek Philippe
Ref. 1463
Asks run ahead of a falling market
Sellers want a premium over hammer prices while those hammer prices are going the other way. The asking price is leaning on a trend that has already turned.
Rolex
Ref. 1500
Cheap, but the market is falling
Asks sit below settled prices, though those settled prices are dropping. The discount may simply be tracking a market on the way down.
Rolex
Ref. 124300
Cheap, but the market is falling
Asks sit below settled prices, though those settled prices are dropping. The discount may simply be tracking a market on the way down.
Patek Philippe
Ref. 5990/1A001
Falling, priced in line
Settled prices are down and asking prices reflect that. No dislocation between the two markets here.
Rolex
Ref. 6265
Cheap, but the market is falling
Asks sit below settled prices, though those settled prices are dropping. The discount may simply be tracking a market on the way down.
Coverage, stated plainly. A row appears only where we hold a live
asking price and a run of auction results deep enough to survive the
filters, currently 48 references across
4 brands. It is weighted toward references that
trade often at auction, so it is not a catalogue and absence from this
list means we lack evidence, not that a watch is a poor holding.
Trend figures are compared inside a single currency so exchange rates
cannot pose as a price move, which is why the currency is named on every
row and trends are never converted.
Last rebuilt 26 Aug 2026.