Analysis . Estimate against hammer

What is an auction estimate actually worth?

Before a sale the estimate is the only number you are given, and no one publishes how well those numbers hold up. We hold 73,696 lots where both the published guide and the price paid are recorded, so here is how each house's estimates actually perform.

How to read this. Every figure compares the hammer price with the middle of the published estimate range, as a ratio. A median of 1.20x means the typical lot sold twenty percent above the midpoint of its guide. Ratios are used rather than differences so a lot at $10,000 and one at $1,000,000 count equally, and the median is used rather than the average so a single runaway lot cannot move a house's headline number.

Selling above estimate is not a mistake. Houses set estimates deliberately low to draw bidders in, so a high ratio describes a commercial choice rather than a valuation failure. What it tells you as a bidder is how much of a premium over the guide you should expect to pay, which is the number the catalogue never gives you.

What is excluded. Buyer's premium, because estimates are quoted against the hammer, and lots that did not sell, because there is no price to compare. No currency conversion is applied anywhere: estimate and hammer are quoted in the same currency on the same lot, so the ratio is already free of exchange rates.

By auction house

Ordered by how many lots sit behind the figure.

Bonhams

34,636 lots measured

Estimates set conservatively

The typical lot sells comfortably above the mid-estimate, which is the normal pattern across the market. Outcomes are fairly tightly grouped, so the estimate is a reasonable guide lot to lot.

Above the high estimate Within the range Below the low estimate
Typical result 1.20x of mid-estimate
Usual range 1.00–1.61x middle half of lots
Did not sell Not held sold results only

Christie's

29,023 lots measured

Estimates set conservatively

The typical lot sells comfortably above the mid-estimate, which is the normal pattern across the market. Outcomes are fairly tightly grouped, so the estimate is a reasonable guide lot to lot.

Above the high estimate Within the range Below the low estimate
Typical result 1.20x of mid-estimate
Usual range 1.00–1.58x middle half of lots
Did not sell 2.7% of known outcomes

Phillips

5,923 lots measured

Estimates set well below the market

The typical lot clears its mid-estimate by a wide margin. Read the low estimate as an opening invitation, not a valuation. Outcomes are fairly tightly grouped, so the estimate is a reasonable guide lot to lot.

Above the high estimate Within the range Below the low estimate
Typical result 1.38x of mid-estimate
Usual range 1.09–1.81x middle half of lots
Did not sell 1.2% of known outcomes

Loupe This

4,114 lots measured

Estimates close to the market

The typical lot lands near its mid-estimate. Of the houses here this is the closest to a straight valuation. Outcomes are fairly tightly grouped, so the estimate is a reasonable guide lot to lot.

Above the high estimate Within the range Below the low estimate
Typical result 1.07x of mid-estimate
Usual range 0.88–1.32x middle half of lots
Did not sell 1.9% of known outcomes

By brand

Across every house together. A high ratio means the market consistently pays more for that maker than the catalogues guide toward.

BrandLotsAbove high est. WithinTypical result
Rolex 11,470 51.7% 46.0% 1.25x
Patek 11,332 47.0% 50.6% 1.20x
Cartier 3,680 53.4% 42.5% 1.25x
Omega 3,505 47.1% 44.4% 1.17x
Audemars 3,099 46.8% 49.4% 1.19x
Breguet 1,789 53.6% 42.9% 1.25x
Jaeger-Lecoultre 1,586 53.9% 42.4% 1.25x
Vacheron 1,559 48.7% 46.6% 1.20x
Piaget 1,218 49.6% 43.7% 1.20x
Iwc 1,152 46.2% 48.3% 1.17x
Longines 1,110 52.4% 36.8% 1.25x
Breitling 852 45.5% 46.8% 1.17x
Heuer 833 42.9% 48.7% 1.13x
Chopard 779 45.7% 49.8% 1.15x
Franck 704 47.6% 47.9% 1.19x
Panerai 693 37.7% 58.4% 1.11x
Waltham 488 52.0% 36.1% 1.22x
Ulysse 470 45.5% 46.8% 1.17x
Zenith 469 43.5% 49.0% 1.13x
Blancpain 465 50.8% 45.6% 1.20x
A. 452 54.0% 44.9% 1.27x
Girard-Perregaux 416 41.6% 51.4% 1.12x
Tudor 397 38.5% 51.4% 1.10x
Corum 388 35.6% 52.6% 1.07x

Year by year

How far above the guide the typical lot has settled, season by season. This tracks the market, not the cataloguing: a falling ratio means bidding cooled relative to where the houses set their guides.

HouseYearLots Above high est.Typical result
Bonhams 2026 1,867 58.7% 1.32x
Bonhams 2025 2,979 56.2% 1.28x
Bonhams 2024 2,894 50.1% 1.19x
Bonhams 2023 2,367 42.7% 1.12x
Bonhams 2022 2,328 45.0% 1.12x
Bonhams 2021 1,745 53.9% 1.26x
Phillips 2026 934 69.1% 1.59x
Phillips 2025 1,769 59.2% 1.41x
Phillips 2024 1,776 50.0% 1.29x
Phillips 2023 1,444 52.0% 1.33x
Christie's 2026 756 50.0% 1.31x
Christie's 2025 1,548 37.3% 1.16x
Christie's 2024 1,521 36.9% 1.12x
Christie's 2023 1,296 29.6% 1.05x
Christie's 2022 1,532 45.4% 1.19x
Christie's 2021 1,810 49.8% 1.25x
Loupe This 2026 706 45.0% 1.17x
Loupe This 2025 949 35.2% 1.10x
Loupe This 2024 873 27.9% 1.03x
Loupe This 2023 748 20.6% 0.97x
Loupe This 2022 581 36.7% 1.08x
Loupe This 2021 257 60.3% 1.25x

Coverage, stated plainly. A house appears only where we hold at least thirty lots carrying both a published estimate and a hammer price. Two houses in our archive publish results without estimates and so cannot be measured here at all, and two record only the lots that sold, which is why their unsold rate reads as not held rather than as zero. Percentages are of measured lots, not of everything the house has ever offered.

Last rebuilt 25 Aug 2026.