Bonhams
34,636 lots measured
Estimates set conservatively
The typical lot sells comfortably above the mid-estimate, which is the normal pattern across the market. Outcomes are fairly tightly grouped, so the estimate is a reasonable guide lot to lot.
Analysis . Estimate against hammer
Before a sale the estimate is the only number you are given, and no one publishes how well those numbers hold up. We hold 73,696 lots where both the published guide and the price paid are recorded, so here is how each house's estimates actually perform.
How to read this. Every figure compares the hammer price with the
middle of the published estimate range, as a ratio. A median of
1.20x means the typical lot sold twenty percent above the midpoint
of its guide. Ratios are used rather than differences so a lot at
$10,000 and one at $1,000,000 count equally, and the median is used
rather than the average so a single runaway lot cannot move a house's
headline number.
Selling above estimate is not a mistake. Houses set estimates
deliberately low to draw bidders in, so a high ratio describes a
commercial choice rather than a valuation failure. What it tells you as
a bidder is how much of a premium over the guide you should expect to
pay, which is the number the catalogue never gives you.
What is excluded. Buyer's premium, because estimates are quoted
against the hammer, and lots that did not sell, because there is no
price to compare. No currency conversion is applied anywhere: estimate
and hammer are quoted in the same currency on the same lot, so the
ratio is already free of exchange rates.
Ordered by how many lots sit behind the figure.
34,636 lots measured
Estimates set conservatively
The typical lot sells comfortably above the mid-estimate, which is the normal pattern across the market. Outcomes are fairly tightly grouped, so the estimate is a reasonable guide lot to lot.
29,023 lots measured
Estimates set conservatively
The typical lot sells comfortably above the mid-estimate, which is the normal pattern across the market. Outcomes are fairly tightly grouped, so the estimate is a reasonable guide lot to lot.
5,923 lots measured
Estimates set well below the market
The typical lot clears its mid-estimate by a wide margin. Read the low estimate as an opening invitation, not a valuation. Outcomes are fairly tightly grouped, so the estimate is a reasonable guide lot to lot.
4,114 lots measured
Estimates close to the market
The typical lot lands near its mid-estimate. Of the houses here this is the closest to a straight valuation. Outcomes are fairly tightly grouped, so the estimate is a reasonable guide lot to lot.
Across every house together. A high ratio means the market consistently pays more for that maker than the catalogues guide toward.
| Brand | Lots | Above high est. | Within | Typical result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex | 11,470 | 51.7% | 46.0% | 1.25x |
| Patek | 11,332 | 47.0% | 50.6% | 1.20x |
| Cartier | 3,680 | 53.4% | 42.5% | 1.25x |
| Omega | 3,505 | 47.1% | 44.4% | 1.17x |
| Audemars | 3,099 | 46.8% | 49.4% | 1.19x |
| Breguet | 1,789 | 53.6% | 42.9% | 1.25x |
| Jaeger-Lecoultre | 1,586 | 53.9% | 42.4% | 1.25x |
| Vacheron | 1,559 | 48.7% | 46.6% | 1.20x |
| Piaget | 1,218 | 49.6% | 43.7% | 1.20x |
| Iwc | 1,152 | 46.2% | 48.3% | 1.17x |
| Longines | 1,110 | 52.4% | 36.8% | 1.25x |
| Breitling | 852 | 45.5% | 46.8% | 1.17x |
| Heuer | 833 | 42.9% | 48.7% | 1.13x |
| Chopard | 779 | 45.7% | 49.8% | 1.15x |
| Franck | 704 | 47.6% | 47.9% | 1.19x |
| Panerai | 693 | 37.7% | 58.4% | 1.11x |
| Waltham | 488 | 52.0% | 36.1% | 1.22x |
| Ulysse | 470 | 45.5% | 46.8% | 1.17x |
| Zenith | 469 | 43.5% | 49.0% | 1.13x |
| Blancpain | 465 | 50.8% | 45.6% | 1.20x |
| A. | 452 | 54.0% | 44.9% | 1.27x |
| Girard-Perregaux | 416 | 41.6% | 51.4% | 1.12x |
| Tudor | 397 | 38.5% | 51.4% | 1.10x |
| Corum | 388 | 35.6% | 52.6% | 1.07x |
How far above the guide the typical lot has settled, season by season. This tracks the market, not the cataloguing: a falling ratio means bidding cooled relative to where the houses set their guides.
| House | Year | Lots | Above high est. | Typical result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonhams | 2026 | 1,867 | 58.7% | 1.32x |
| Bonhams | 2025 | 2,979 | 56.2% | 1.28x |
| Bonhams | 2024 | 2,894 | 50.1% | 1.19x |
| Bonhams | 2023 | 2,367 | 42.7% | 1.12x |
| Bonhams | 2022 | 2,328 | 45.0% | 1.12x |
| Bonhams | 2021 | 1,745 | 53.9% | 1.26x |
| Phillips | 2026 | 934 | 69.1% | 1.59x |
| Phillips | 2025 | 1,769 | 59.2% | 1.41x |
| Phillips | 2024 | 1,776 | 50.0% | 1.29x |
| Phillips | 2023 | 1,444 | 52.0% | 1.33x |
| Christie's | 2026 | 756 | 50.0% | 1.31x |
| Christie's | 2025 | 1,548 | 37.3% | 1.16x |
| Christie's | 2024 | 1,521 | 36.9% | 1.12x |
| Christie's | 2023 | 1,296 | 29.6% | 1.05x |
| Christie's | 2022 | 1,532 | 45.4% | 1.19x |
| Christie's | 2021 | 1,810 | 49.8% | 1.25x |
| Loupe This | 2026 | 706 | 45.0% | 1.17x |
| Loupe This | 2025 | 949 | 35.2% | 1.10x |
| Loupe This | 2024 | 873 | 27.9% | 1.03x |
| Loupe This | 2023 | 748 | 20.6% | 0.97x |
| Loupe This | 2022 | 581 | 36.7% | 1.08x |
| Loupe This | 2021 | 257 | 60.3% | 1.25x |
Coverage, stated plainly. A house appears only where we hold at
least thirty lots carrying both a published estimate and a hammer price.
Two houses in our archive publish results without estimates and so
cannot be measured here at all, and two record only the lots that sold,
which is why their unsold rate reads as not held rather than as zero.
Percentages are of measured lots, not of everything the house has ever
offered.
Last rebuilt 25 Aug 2026.