The Post-Bubble Landscape
The luxury watch market experienced one of its most dramatic episodes between 2020 and 2022. Stimulus-fuelled savings, record-low interest rates, and pandemic-driven desire for tangible assets converged to push secondary market premiums to extraordinary levels. A stainless steel Rolex Daytona, historically trading at modest premiums over retail, briefly commanded more than double its manufacturer's price on the grey market.
By mid-2023, corrections had swept through nearly every major reference category. The question collectors and investors now face: was the bubble an aberration, or did it permanently reset baseline valuations?
The data suggests neither a return to pre-2020 norms nor a permanent new floor, but rather a structurally higher equilibrium, underpinned by constrained supply and growing global demand.
Brand-by-Brand Performance
Not all brands corrected equally. Rolex and Patek Philippe, whose production is deliberately limited, have seen secondary prices settle approximately 20–30% below 2022 peaks but remain well above 2019 levels. Independent makers such as F.P. Journe and A. Lange & Söhne have shown remarkable resilience, with limited editions continuing to appreciate regardless of broader market sentiment.
The brands most exposed to correction were those whose 2021–22 premiums were driven purely by speculative demand rather than fundamentals: Audemars Piguet Royal Oak references in steel, and certain Patek complications, have experienced the sharpest retracements.
What the Data Shows
Across the 28 sources tracked by The Watch Info platform, average secondary market prices in Q1 2025 sit approximately 18% above Q1 2020 levels when adjusted for inflation. Listing volumes have normalised after the 2021 flood of speculative flips, and days-on-market metrics suggest genuine collector demand is absorbing available inventory at current pricing.
Outlook
The watch market appears to be entering a phase of rational consolidation. Buyers with 3–5 year horizons and a focus on limited-production references from proven brands are positioned in a more defensible position than at any point since 2019. The speculative froth has cleared; what remains is a market driven by passion, craftsmanship, and genuine scarcity.
Data sourced from The Watch Info price database, covering 28 sources. Analysis as of March 2025. Not financial advice.
